Stock Up, Stock Down - College Football Stretch Run

Stock Up

LSU - The young Tigers only loss has come against Florida in a game that was controlled by the Gators throughout. But the Tigers learned a lot from that game and have become a better team since. We’re not making any excuses for LSU but Florida was playing on two weeks rest while the Tigers were at the end of their first half run that included games against Auburn, Mississippi St. and Washington. The Tigers look primed to stick their nose in the BCS conversation with a win over Alabama this weekend. Charles Scott came out of his personal slump last weekend and coordinator Gary Crowton has finally found a way to implement QB Russell Shepard into the offense with some success. The Tigers are going to be in the middle of the BCS race when it’s all said and done.

Notre Dame - They survived the toughest part of the schedule with two losses and have four very winnable games left. With so many undefeated teams in the mix this season, it’s unlikely the Irish are going to be the first candidate for a BCS bowl but the media will try like hell to squeeze them into the top 10 by the end of the season. There should be some build up with their game against Pittsburgh and as long as the Panthers win the Big East, Notre Dame can point to it as their signature win. We fully expect the Irish to win out, be in the conversation for a big time bowl, be favored in their matchup and get blown out by an SEC or Big 12 opponent.

Boise State - The biggest winner on Saturday night besides Oregon was Boise State. How the hell can the BCS ever rank Oregon above Boise State? There are a ton of ‘what-if’s’ in Boise State’s scenario but it’s not crazy to think they could be ranked in the top 3 at some point in the next three weeks. Iowa, Cincinnati, Alabama and TCU all have very losable games on their schedule over that time while the Broncos’ toughest opponent left is Nevada. They’ll also need Texas to lose in the Big 12 championship game but by the end of the season Boise State will have the best resume a non-BCS team has ever compiled.

Stock Down

West Virginia - The Mountaineers beat up on a weak early schedule to run their record to 6-1 before getting smacked in the face by South Florida last Thursday. Noel Devine’s 56-yard TD run against UConn is the difference between West Virginia being 5-3 and 6-2 right now. With Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Rutgers left on the schedule don’t be surprised when the Mountaineers enter their bowl game with 5 losses, one less than we predicted at the beginning of the season. QB Jarrett Brown is 37-64 passing with 426 yards, 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions in his two games against BCS teams with winning records this season and West Virginia is 0-2 in those games. Three out of the four teams left on their schedule have those credentials. Mountaineer fans didn’t want to admit that their reign over the Big East was coming to an end but it’s going to be hard to deny after this season.

Arizona - The Wildcats have built a 5-2 record by beating up on some of the lesser teams in the PAC-10. Now they have to run through USC, Oregon, Arizona State and California in order to validate their season. Without a go-to player on offense and a defense that routinely gives up 30 points, the Wildcats might be in trouble when the PAC-10 powers come knocking. That said, Mike Stoops has done a great job of beating the teams he is supposed to beat. It’s more than teams like Ohio State and USC can say this year.

Oklahoma State - Their recent loss to Texas will signal the beginning of a disappointing end to the 2009 season for the Cowboys. Once considered a BCS title contender, Oklahoma State lost an early game to Houston then lost their best player - Dez Bryant - to NCAA stupidity. Now they have to find a way to regroup from a big loss to play the heart of their Big 12 schedule. With games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma it looks like the Cowboys have probably reached their peak for the season and are on their way down.