Colin’s Underdog Pick Of The Week

Ohio State +5 @ Penn State

I’ve always been a big believer in value investing whether it’s in football or financials and I see a big value this weekend in the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Here’s something to remember in this football game. The most underrated statistic in football is third down conversions. The Penn State and Ohio State defenses are 1-2 in the Big Ten in third down defense. Gamblers love that statistic because it could lead directly to answers for over/unders or point differential. If you convert third downs it generally means you have a good quarterback, a good coach or players that simply come through in the clutch. It also gives your defense a rest.

This is going to be a very low scoring football game. I’m talking 13-9 or 16-13. At no point should either team be up more than a touchdown for an extended period of time. I think Penn State wins the football game but I’m getting Ohio State’s third down defense in big situations on Saturday night along with some points, so I’m more than willing to take them.

If you look at the history of this rivalry big field goals late are usually the difference. Take the points.