Fireman Mike’s Fab Five Football Bets
ByOUCH!!! After a 1-4 weekend I had to do some serious research and spent long nights away trying to figure out how to get back on track (and also how to pay the book!). That disastrous weekend plummets my record to 24-19-2 on the season but there’s no time to dwell on it. I traveled down to Virginia for my buddy’s DEA graduation and got my mind 
right. Even though I stuck out like Greg Ostertag at a 50 Cent concert around all the Feds, I feel pretty damn confident about this weekend’s picks and a lot more comfortable than I did at Quantico. Sorry they come in a little later than usual but change might not be a bad thing this weekend. Here we go……-Fireman Mike
UConn +6 vs. Notre Dame
Have you ever heard of kicking them while they’re down? Putting the nail in the proverbial coffin? Well that’s what UConn is trying to do to Charlie Weis’ Notre Dame coaching career this weekend and I love their chances. The Huskies have been cover hounds all season and they are in prime position to pick the Irish off this weekend too.
Remember, as mediocre as some of the recent Notre Dame teams have been, it is still huge for their opponents to come in and beat them on their home turf. Games that would go down as ‘just another victory’ for the Irish are celebrated, program-changing victories for their opponents. The Huskies are desperate for a big win in a season that has seen them lose five games by a total of 15 points.
UConn has the ground game - with Andre Dixon and Jordan Todman - to keep the ball out of Notre Dame’s hands and the ability to make plays downfield - with Marcus Easley - if necessary. Everybody knows what to expect from the Notre Dame offense and an extra week to look at film will give UConn a big advantage. Randy Edsall always has his team well prepared, regardless of the distractions circulating around them in Storrs. Notre Dame on the other hand hasn’t shown much resolve and haven’t played as though they are too worried about losing their head coach.
UConn pulls off the upset 23-20, adding another blemish to Charlie Weis’ tenure in South Bend.
Oregon - 6 @ Arizona
All season long the Wildcats have been a pleasant surprise, sneaking into the top 25 in the middle of the season and moving up as high as 16th in our poll. But we were always weary of their accomplishments because they piled up wins against some of the weaker teams in the PAC-10. Oregon is not weak.
The Ducks offense has been rolling opponents all season and this weekend will be no different. Led by LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon is primed to move that much closer to a Rose Bowl berth win a victory.
The Ducks strut their stuff during a 44-20 victory and make the country excited about an Oregon-Ohio State Rose Bowl matchup.
Northwestern +7 vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin is the weakest three loss team in the country. Their best win all season came against a 6-5 Michigan State team that has been a major disappointment. Any time they have faced a reasonable challenge they have failed miserably, losing to Ohio State and Iowa by a combined 28 points.
Wisconsin’s offense is led by running back John Clay and whenever opponents have been able to shut him down the Badgers have fallen in conference play. The Badgers have to travel to Northwestern who haven’t had this much fan support since Darnell Autry was running around campus.
Lions -3 vs. Browns
The Lions are a better all-around team and aren’t favored by enough points. When was the last time you heard that line?
Lions win 31-16. I’ll let it simmer and move on to my next pick.
49ers +7 @ Packers
Here’s the deal. I’ve had a long week in Virginia but have done a lot of breakdown on this game as well. I loved the 49ers when I first saw this pick then went back with the mindset of something must be up if I like a team to win straight up but they’re getting points. Nope, everything is cool.
The gambling public likes the Packers a lot more than I do and Vegas takes advantage of that. Aaron Rodgers might be a stat machine but the Packers are a below .500 franchise with him under center. San Francisco finally shook off the Crabtree Jinx to win last week against Denver and they’ll continue on their winning ways this weekend.
San Francisco collects an impressive road victory at Lambeau, 23-20, and the media starts to rethink crowning Rodgers as the best QB in the NFC when the season started. As always, take the points.
Philly +4 to AZ -2 • The Cards Kurt Warner goes back to his magic kingdom and lights it up, hits Steve Bresten multiple times (2 TDs) both RBs have solid games (run currently ranked 6th in NFL) and AZ is now in Superbowl talks once again.
Philly makes cheese steaks out of the Bears D which has performed like the old has beens that they are, McNabb gets comfortable on the road, McCoy breaks out as a receiver (and runner) and Jay Cutler starts twitching at about 9pm when he usually is about 12 Tequila shots in. Unless Chicago replaces the Gatorade cooler with beer philly wins comfortably (late). Eagles -170 is perfectly reasonable (like betting on a good pitcher on the road), take out the sister kisser or buy the half point.
UPSET ALERT: My gut tells me San Diego is going to win (better QB) but my gut told me to eat that bacon wrapped hotdog in Mexico when I was 17 (damn that was a long time ago). Broncos are at home which is one of the true home field advantages in the NFL (sports) and they have the better D and run game. LT has only played well once in Denver and is aging like some cheese I have in my fridge. The Broncos still have the 6th best team defense, the better coaches, DBs, offensive line (barely) and their QB Simms with a week of prep is a nice come back from near death on the field story. Simms has a better arm then the starter if he can keep the ints to a minimum they win outright. Den+14 to Phill +4 is safest but add a (smaller) play +240 to your ticket and take better then 2 to 1 on the home team in a must win divisional game.
p.s. For what it\’s worth one major online book has moved Indy form -1 to -2.5 this morning. Corned beef hash, Guinness and not having to wait til the afternoon for games is worth not having a home team but we will welcome the Vikings soon enough in LA.