No college games on the board this weekend, unless you’re a fan of D1-AA football and if you are, take Villanova -3.5 over William and Mary. I ran my record to 35-26-2 after a 3-2 weekend but I’m still looking for that big weekend to put me up over the 60% level to stay. This is the weekend that we’re going to do that. Here we go!…..-Fireman Mike

Denver +7 @ Indianapolis

Both teams come in 8-4 ATS but they couldn’t be any further apart in terms of mental preparation. The Broncos need to win this game in order to keep their momentum and earn themselves a spot in the playoffs.

The Colts have all but locked up home field advantage but have also been in this position over the last five seasons. Going undefeated is so far down on their list of goals that I wouldn’t be surprised if Peyton Manning starts playing in only one half of some of their remaining games, especially because new backup quarterback Curtis Painter has no experience in the pro game.

The Broncos fall behind 10-0 early, keep the game close through 3 quarters and give us a typical backdoor cover, in a 24-20 loss, by putting a scare into the Colts late. Take the points and watch what turns out to be a pretty good game.

Cincinnati +6.5 @ Minnesota

Neither team gives up too many yards on the ground so this is going to be a game decided by quarterbacks making sound decisions and leading their team to victory.

Brett Favre has been magnificent this season but reverted back to a little bit of a gunslinger last weekend when he threw a few interceptions against a hungry Arizona defense. I don’t expect that to happen again because Favre and the Vikings have put together a recipe for success and will not deviate from it regardless if it’s being shut down or not.

Carson Palmer has been rejuvenated in 2009 and has been able to keep Ochocinco on a leash for the most part on the field. Off the field ‘8-5′ takes a lot of pressure off of his teammates enabling them to focus on the task at hand and not get too enamored with their surprising record. The Bengals will do everything they can to stop Adrian Peterson from taking the game over and will be successful in the first half, which will lead to Favre tossing the ball a little more in the second. Cincinnati’s defensive secondary of Leon Hall, Johnathon Joseph and Chinedum Ndukwe form one of the most underrated units in the NFL and will be up for the task.

The Bengals lose on a last minute field goal, 29-27, but show why they are a team to be afraid of in the AFC and also pad our wallets.

Green Bay -3.5 @ Chicago

These are teams on two totally different paths and it will show up dramatically on Sunday.

The Bears are in desperate need for a change at the top. They are out of the running for a playoff spot and Lovie Smith has totally lost his team, it’s even debatable if he ever had them in the first place. The worst thing that could happen to the Bears as a franchise is for them to go on a little run at the end of the season and save his job. This game with banish those prospects.

The Packers have been chasing the Vikings all season and they have started to play their best football of the season based on a sense of urgency that is keeping them on their toes. Aaron Rodgers has put together another very good statistical season but has done so by playing winning football at the same time. Green Bay’s defense has picked up the slack as well and they aren’t going to let Matt Forte beat them on the ground. That means a lot of throws from Jay Cutler, which has meant a lot of turnovers for the Bears this season.

The Packers win the turnover battle and win this game, 34-20, in a game that puts one of the final nails in Lovie Smith’s coffin.

New York Giants -1 vs. Philadelphia

People are starting to count the Giants out of the NFC East race. Even after a win over the Cowboys last week the media said the game could have gone either way and the Giants were outplayed for most of the game. But the reality is that the Giants are starting to make the plays that they didn’t make earlier in the season and they are going to see wins from it.

The Eagles beat up on the Falcons last week in a game that saw Michael Vick break out of his cell….Uh, I mean shell. That was in a beautiful dome that didn’t provide any real obstacles for the Eagles, with the home crowd actually cheering for Vick at one point. Don’t expect the Meadowlands to be so welcoming.

The Giants are not, and never were, in as bad of a position as the media had them in. They have a ton of veteran leadership in the locker room and they still have the ability to get to the quarterback. They gave up a lot of garbage yards to the Cowboys toward the end of the game, and also made enough plays of defense and special teams that they really didn’t have to move the ball too far offensively in order to score. Don’t forget the revenge factor for the G-Men after a 40-7 defeat at the hands of the Eagles earlier this year.

The Giants win this game, 27-16, and prove they are still a very scary team in the NFC.

Arizona -3.5 @ San Francisco

Colin and I are in a pool in which we pick every NFL game against the spread, every week. I am 10 for 14 – remember we had two games the opening week – on the season on Monday night so I’m going to make this my pick of the week.

Arizona is hitting their stride and also has a chip on their shoulder after being put on the back burner for much of the year. They are primed to go into San Francisco and do exactly what a Super Bowl- level team is supposed to do and that’s kick the crap out of a mediocre young squad.

Kurt Warner is back under center for the second week in a row and the 49ers secondary won’t have much of an answer for Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin. It seems like the Cardinals realize what it takes to win games right now and their defense is starting to capitalize on their supreme athleticism.

Arizona wins this game, 34-27, but the 49ers only make it that close by scoring a few touchdowns in the fourth quarter after trailing for the entire game.