Giants +3 vs. Patriots

A lot of people think Vegas is trying to outsmart everyone by setting this line but the truth is I thought it would be New England -6 when it first came out on Monday. And I think Vegas would have gotten their desired 50-50 split had they set it that high, planting doubt into the minds of the public. But they set it at -3 and even the non-betting public thought, “If it’s NE -3, why don’t they just set it at a ‘pick’ and let the line figure itself out?”

At the end of the day, the Patriots should probably be favored by at least 5 points based on their improving defense, history of success and the fact that they have the best coach/QB tandem in the history of the league. But Vegas decided to give “-3″ a whirl and see where it took them so that’s what we’re dealing with.

Regardless of the line, I would have liked the Giants to cover and win outright. Sometimes the regular season isn’t an accurate depiction of a team, especially when they’re still playing in Febuary. This holds true for a Giants team that hit a lull in the middle of the season that would have killed most teams and had their head coach fired. But the G-Men bounced back after losing four out of five games -their lone win coming against this New England team- during a brutal stretch in which they had to play New England, San Francisco, Philly, New Orleans and Green Bay. This New York team is a battle-tested group that has faced the NFL’s best throughout the last three months.

New England, on the other hand, only had to face two teams that finished the season above .500 in the regular season and had a few breaks go their way in order to make it this far in the first place. Anything can happen this weekend, don’t get me wrong. When Tom Brady takes the field his team always has a chance to win but if you’re putting money on the best “team”, you’d have to take the Giants.

Both offenses should run hot at different points in this game, a direct reflection of their leadership and the fact that Hall Of Fame quarterbacks don’t worry about the last drive and focus on the next. There will be a few turnovers in this game but we like to see those when we have the OVER. I expect the Giants to pull away at some point early in the fourth quarter, only to see Brady storm back and have the ball in his hands with a chance to win with under a minute to go.

The Giants beat the Patriots for the third time in their last three meetings, 33-27, and are crowned Super Bowl Champs for the fourth time since 1986, but we’ll take the points because they’re free!

OVER 53

Greg Schiano has agreed to become the next head coach of the Bucs, replacing Raheem Morris, who -after as promising finish to the end of the 2010 season as well as a strong start this past season- was fired following a disappointing 4-12 season that saw the Bucs lose their final 9 games of the season.

Schiano made a name for himself at the college level while compiling and coaching one of the quickest, most athletic and violent defensive teams in the country while at the University of Miami from 1999-2000. Schiano’s defenses were widely regarded as an NFL breeding ground and players like LB Dan Morgan and future Hall of Famer Ed Reed were some of his disciples. His success at Miami along with his lifelong New Jersey routes made him one of the lead candidates for the Rutgers job following the 2000 season.

Schiano took over a program that wasn’t only a joke in the Northeast but nationwide. After struggling to form an offensive identity in his first two seasons (3-20), Schiano got his own recruits on campus and started to change the programs identity. By keeping in-state players at home, Schiano was able to build his program and more importantly didn’t allow other Big East coaches to pillage his own backyard.

2006 was the climax for Schiano’s career as well as the Rutgers football program in the last 60 years. The Scarlet Knights opened the season with a surprising 21-16 win over North Carolina behind sophomore running back Ray Rice, who Schiano would to national notoriety for the rest of the season.

During the magical run of ‘06 included a couple Thursday Night games that put the Rutgers programo n the map. The Scarlet Nights would rise all the way up to #7 in the Associated Press poll. Like many coaches that have brought teams from the dumps to the spotlight, Schiano became a rising star in the coaching community. His name was brought up each of the past two times the Miami head job had a vacancy and many had him tabbed as Joe Paterno’s successor up until a few years ago.

Now the Tampa Bay Bucs welcome a fiery and still reasonably young -at age 49- head coach into town to revive the franchise. Considering what he’s done at Rutgers as well as his reputation as a leader of men, I wouldn’t doubt Schiano in this -or any- situation!

Ravens +7 @ Patriots

We’ve become such a “What have you done for me lately?” society that it’s hard to remember what we thought of the Patriots during the regular season. But this is the same team that -in the words of Bart Scott- couldn’t stop a nosebleed, yet they’re a touchdown favorite against a team that was downright dominant against the best teams the NFL had to offer. Ray Lewis and Co. stepped up to every challenege during the season and I fully expect that to continue in the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots haven’t beaten a team with a record over .500 yet this year and advanced to the Championship Game by beating one of the worst quarterbacks ever to take a snap in the NFL Playoffs. Joe Flacco isn’t going to light the world on fire but he’s proven time and time again that he can do just enough to win games. Believe me, Joe Flacco can win a Super Bowl, and this might just be the year that he actually does it.

The Ravens win straight up, 26-24, but we’ll take the points because they’re free!

Giants +2.5 @ 49ers

Here’s a crazy stat that has gone mostly understated by the “experts” and even my man Colin didn’t bring it up until I texted him on Friday morning: The NFC has been represented in the Super Bowl by a different team in each of the past ten seasons. That is what scares me about the 49ers. Every time the public thinks an NFC team is going to march back to the SB, a new team arrives on the block and ultimately represents the conference. I think the streak stops here though, simply because the Giants are too hot and haven’t EVER lost in an NFC Championship Game. Not to mention, no team that has won their first two games in blowout fashion has ever gone on to lose their third. Eli Manning has the Giants offense running wild but the most important aspect of the Giants is their defensive front seven, who have been playing at their highest level when it counts. The Giants and Niners get into a surprising shootout in the first half before both defenses settle down, but the Giants are too much late.

New York goes back to the Super Bowl and remains the only NFC team in the past 12 years to make it to multiple Super Bowls with a 37-31 win.

49ers +4 vs. Saints

Four out of the last five times the best defense has taken on the best offense in the playoffs, the defense has prevailed. I don’t think it’s going to happen this time around but I’m ready for a close game. I’m a little worried about San Fran’s inability to finish in the red zone but New Orleans’ defense is so used to giving up yardage that San Fran will score a few early TDs and gain confidence from there. This is a HUGE deal for the city of San Francisco and Jim Harbaugh’s crew is going to be up for the challenge.

New Orleans wins this game, 31-28, but San Fran takes the money and we’ll take the points because they’re free.

Patriots -13.5 vs. Broncos

Dick LaBeau didn’t have to do what he did last weekend against Tim Tebow. I can’t remember a defensive coordinator being more arrogant in his gameplan and it extended to his core players, showing mostly in Troy Palomalu, who was cheating more than Tiger Woods last weekend. It was a travesty. And I’m a big LaBeau fan. I think he’s done more as a coordinator over the last ten years than most Hall of Famers, considering what he has to contend with offensively in this day and age. Belichick won’t let his pride become his downfall this weekend and will keep two deep in the defensive backfield, mainly because he realizes Tebow is one of the least efficient runners in the NFL. He’ll fumble or simply won’t gain the optimal amount of yards a given play is designed for. The Pats also have something the Steelers didn’t: A healthy Tom Brady. That makes a little bit of a difference as well.

New England blows out the Cinderella Fellas, 41-16, and covers the big number somewhat easily.

Texans +9 @ Ravens

This is going to be a low scoring affair and when that’s the case nine points are a lot. TJ Yates has been extremely impressive in his debut season, leading the Texans to their first playoff victory and probably setting himself up with a job in Houston for as long as he wants to be a backup. I like Baltimore a lot, so much that I put some money on them to win the Super Bowl recently, but Houston’s defense is one of the most underrated groups in the league and Wade Phillips has proven to be a God Send since arriving. They’ll give Joe Flacco everything he can handle this weekend and should end up with a chance to win the game on the final drive, something I DON’T expect to happen.

Baltimore wins, 19-13, but Houston cashes in. We’ll take the points because they’re free.

Giants +8 @ Packers

This is the one team the “experts” thought would give the Packers problems throughout the entire season. And sure enough, during their regular season matchup, the Giants almost came out with a victory against the Pack. This time the Giants have to travel to Wisconsin to get the job done but -at the very least- they’re getting far too many points. Eli Manning has shown the ability to throw the long ball to a group of receivers that is probably only rivaled by Green Bay. Both of these teams give up points at a rapid rate which is why we’re going to double up and take the OVER as well. The Giants have been a fantastic road dog over Manning’s career and that won’t change against Aaron Rodgers and the high-scoring Pack, who play directly into New York’s hands.

The Giants win this thing straight up, 38-35, on a late field goal but we’ll take the points because they’re free.

Giants-Packers OVER 52.5

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With an overall record of 64-44-3 (59%) we’re looking to pick up two victories tonight and hit our goal of winning 60% of our games as we head into the scond round of the NFL Playoffs. Anybody who watched the first installment of “The Game of the Century” took something different away from it. Personally, I thought Nick Saban played it a little too close to the vest and paid for it when it came time to kick field goals, missing multiple attempts.

Each team had two weeks to prepare for one another the first time around and with more than a month to get ready for this one, neither coach will be surprised by the other choice of play calls.In order to break down this game, we’ll take a look at the most important aspects of winning football and see who has the advantage in each category.

Defense

Both of these teams have exceptional coordinators, a ton of future NFL personnel and intricate schemes. Bama has given up less than 9 points per game this season while LSU isn’t far behind, allowing a little under 11 ppg. The difference is LSU’s uncanny ability to create crucial turnovers at opportune times, demoralizing their opponent more than any team in recent college football history. CBs Tyrann Mathieu and Morris Claiborne are future first-rounders and have come up with a few of the most memorable plays of the 2011 season. They frequently capitalize on the pressure provided by their front seven, who also have a bevy of NFL talent. Alabama is no slouch in the turnover or prospect category either though. Led by LB Courtney Upshaw and CB Dre Kirkpatrick -both of whom won’t last past the first round of the NFL Draft if they decide to come out this year- the Crimson Tide is probably a little bit more physical than LSU and are totally comfortable playing a ground and pound type of game. When breaking down these two defenses, it’s important to think about what they’re matched up against as well. even though LSU has gotten more production out of their running backs toward the end of the season, noboyd carrying the ball for the Tigers boast the type of credentials held by Bama RB Trent Richardson. He did work against LSU last time around, to the tune of 169 total yards. I would give a very, very slight edge to Alabama here.

Quarterbacks

It would have been interesting to see what LSU’s offense would have looked like had Jordan Jefferson not gotten into a bar brawl before the start of the season. Jarrett Lee did an admirable job replacing the big man early in the year but the Tigers’ offense never really struck fear into the hearts of their opponents. While there is no doubt they can score in bunches -especially off turnovers- there is still much to be desired at the quarterback position in Baton Rouge. The thing that separates the two LSU signal callers is Jefferson’s abiulity to break the pocket and make something out of nothing, a skill that separates him from Alabama QB AJ McCarron as well. A lot can be learned in a month on a college campus and hopefully McCarron broke down film and trusts his arm a little more than he did during the first matchup. Since October 8th, McCarron has thrown 12 TDs to only 3 INTs, with one of those coming against LSU. He has thrown for three TDs in each of his last two games and Alabama his efficiency has been outstanding, connecting on 77% of his passes those games. The Tigers will invite him to make throws on Monday Night and one of the most interesting aspects of this game will be whether or not McCarron is allowed to take some shots downfield, a must if you ask me! Again, this is a close call but I’ll take McCarron because he’s avoided the big turnover, has imporved as the season has gone on, is still far from being a finished product and this past month could have made more of a difference for him than any other QB in the BCS era.

Offense

Each team has great depth as the skill positions and that can be directly credited to monster recruiting classes throughout each coach’s tenure. Along the lines, it’s a toss-up. Each has done a fantatsic job protecting thier quarterback and have been road graters in the running game, racking up over 2,000 yards on the ground. The Tigers have five backs that have run for over 200 yards but non e that have run for 1,000. Alabama, on the other hand, has the premier running back in college football in Trent Richardson as well as a formidable backup in Eddie Lacy, who’s gained 631 yards on the ground himself. Neither team uses their tight end all that often but Bama’s Brad Smelley came on strong at the end of the year and has been something of a revelation for the Tide. LSU probably has the advantage over Bama in terms of prospects on the outside but they haven’t been any more productive at this level, this year. LSU’s Rueben Randle is the best receiver on either side of the ball and could go over the 1,000-yard mark with a big game tonight. Marquis Maze is a fantastic WR/KR and Bama will make an effort to get the ball into his hands early and often in the Championship Game. Richardson sets the Crimson Tide apart in this category, although it’s close once again.

Special Teams

Based simply on field goals, LSU has a pretty big advantage in this department. Not only are they more efficient, they actually have faith in the kicker, something a lot of fans take for granted far too often. Both teams have explosive return men that can take it to the house but special teams is where depth shines through. A lot of the guys on specials for these teams would be starters on most other D1 teams but are earning their scholarships for a season or a career by flying down the field and ruining the opposition’s day. LSU gets a strong nod here.

Coaches

Les Miles and Nick Saban each have remarkable resumes to their credit and have done a phenomenal job building the programs they currently run. Miles got some help from Saban to start with but he’s been nothing short of legendary since arriving in Baton Rouge. The media has made way too much out of Miles being the “Mad Hatter” and act like he isn’t a disciple of legendary disciplinarian Bo Schembechler at Michigan. Since coming back to the college game after a debacle with the NFL’s Miami Dolphins, Saban has taken an Alabama program coming off big-time NCAA issues and has turned them into the powerhouse everyone down south expects them to be. Saban is trying to become the first coach in history to win 3 BCS National Championships while Miles is trying to tie Saban with two. If I was an athletic director and had the pick of the litter in the coaching world, I would confidently hand the keys of my football program over to Nick Saban and let him do what he does. But, for this situation, it’s as much of a dead tie and there could be.

Outlook

LSU will have a distinct home field advantage, seeing that this game will be played in New Orleans but I’m taking Alabama and the Over in this game. I think there will be a lot more scoring than people think, based more on good offensive production than defensive breakdowns and it will start early with each team scoring on their opening drive. We’re not going to see anything resembling Baylor-Washington but each team should be in the 20’s when it’s all said and done.

Bama wins their second BCS Championship -Saban wins his third- by a score of 27-23 and we cash in for the final time this year in college football.

Bengals +4 @ Texans

This is the hardest game of the weekend -pro or college- to handicap. The Texans play great defense and have some game-changing players on that side of the ball. But the statistic that stands out the most in this matchup is Andy Dalton’s performance in the red zone this season. He hasn’t thrown an interception and has been more than efficient for the entire year. The Bengals haven’t beaten a playoff team yet this season and I don’t expect that to change this weekend.

In the first overtime playoff game under the new format, Houston wins, 19-16, on a touchdown from TJ Yates to Andre Johnson in the back of the end zone, a play that has to be reviewed for three minutes before officially being called a TD. Cincy kicks a field goal on their first possession, only to give up a long drive to Yates and Co. but we’re still in the money since they don’t kick the extra point in OT. We’ll take the point because they’re free!

Saints -10.5 vs. Lions

Vegas caught up with the Lions after a hot start and they’ve failed to cover five out of their last six games and eight of their last eleven. You have to give the Lions all the credit in the world considering they beat the teams they were supposed to this season -something the entire NFC East can’t say, along with a number of other teams in the league- but Detroit was 1-5 ATS against playoff teams and weren’t really in too many of those games. I’m sure by now you know that the Saints are 8-0 SU and ATS this season at home, a statistic that has driven the line up throughout the week. They are arguably playing the best football of any team in the NFL right now and are desperately looking to wash the taste of last year’s ugly first round defeat against Seattle out of their mouths. They’ll do so on Saturday Night and in a big way. The Lions took a step in the right direction this year but the cream also rises in the NFL come Playoff time and Detroit is unfortunately running into a buzzsaw down in NOLA.

New Orleans sends a message with a 49-21 victory over a very good Lions team.

Giants -3 vs. Falcons

First thing’s first: This Giants team is not similar to the 2007 team by any stretch of the imagination. But they can still rush the hell out of the quarterback and create turnovers at a good pace. That makes them extremely dangerous in the playoffs, especially at home against a dome team that doesn’t have a very mobile quarterback. Eli Manning has shown the ability to take the top off NFL defenses and can manipulate the pocket as well as any QB in the league. His talented group of receivers have made all the difference in the world, from Hakeem Nicks to Victor Cruz to Jake Ballard to Travis Beckham, they’ve all made huge plays during an up and down season in New York. The G-Men are trending up at this point and we’ll ride them in the first round, as they’re salivating to get another opportunity to ruin Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ wonderful little season.

New York exposes the Falcons secondary, opening up holes to run and actually get over 100 yards from Brandon Jacobs as the free-agent-to-be finally show some sack, running north and south for four quarters in a 34-24 Giants victory.

Steelers -9 @ Denver

This is only the second time in NFL history that a road team has been favored by more than a touchdown in the first round of the playoffs. That said, I would take Pittsburgh in this game if they were giving 19 points to the hapless Broncos offense and their fans who like to pretend that there is more than one way to win in the NFL. News flash Denver: You have to throw the ball in order to win in the playoffs! And the option won’t work against the best defensive mind of our generation and a team led by a real quarterback who can actually make all the throws. Can you get the feeling that I’m a little sick of Tebow-Mania? Every few years a player or a team comes around and tries to cheat the game. They do it for a couple weeks, it becomes all the rage because it’s unique and slowly fades away, leaving the organization that allowed it to be tried in the dust. Remember the wildcat? Look at the Dolphins now. Denver is in the same position and better do everything they can to get a quarterback prospect in this upcoming draft, or ride Tebow to a 2-14 record next season and get Matt Barkley to take the short trip from Southern Cal to Denver. If the Broncos somehow win, by all means will I eat crow but I’m almost positive I’ll be ordering filet mignon from Ruth’s Chris on Sunday Night!

Pittsburgh wins big, 27-0, and Tim Tebow is exposed for the fraudulent quarterback that he truly is!

Alabama -2 vs. LSU / OVER 40.5 - BCS National Championship

LSU will have a distinct home field advantage, seeing that this game will be played in New Orleans but I’m taking Alabama and the Over in this game. I think there will be a lot more scoring than people think, based more on good offensive production than defensive breakdowns and it will start early with each team scoring on their opening drive. We’re not going to see anything resembling Baylor-Washington but each team should be in the 20’s when it’s all said and done.

For the entire game breakdown click here but to make it short and sweet……Bama wins their second BCS Championship -Saban wins his third- by a score of 27-23 and we cash in for the final time this year in college football.

Houston -6.5 vs. Penn State - Ticket City Bowl

Colin, my uncle Jim and I are in an NFL pool in which we pick every game against the spread throughout the season. We were in first place -out of 46 teams, 230 guys- for the majority of the season until we fell off the past few weeks. My uncle calls me yesterday and starts over-analyzing every game tot he point where I had to bark at him and tell him to pipe the fuck down! We’ve gone through the entire season making our picks using common sense and a little in-depth statistical info. What’s my point? Don’t OVER-analyze these things. Houston is a team with a great 6th-year QB playing in his final college game -with a TON to prove to the NFL scout who will likely be in attendance- against a team that is in complete disarray and have a quarterback situation that is borderline embarrassing. I can’t see them hanging with the Cougars or stopping Case Keenum enough to make it a defensive battle.

Houston wins handily, 37-23, and Keenum finishes his record-setting career with another great performance.

Michigan State +3.5 vs. Georgia - Outback Bowl

The Outback Bowl usually provides a pretty entertaining battle and this shouldn’t be any different. The Spartans are a few points away from playing a BCS Bowl and have been one of the most consistent teams in college football over the past five years. Georgia and Mark Richt have been the college equivalent to the San Diego Chargers and Norv Turner over the last few seasons. They start slowly, put their coach on the hot seat and rally for a few big wins to regain the University’s faith. Mark Dantonio on the other hand has led his team to a great three year run and his program is at the point where they can hang with anybody, which I fully expect this talented and veteran team to do. Kirk Cousins plays in his final game and the Spartans defense will step up to the challenge in the Outback Bowl.

Michigan State wins this game straight up, 36-31, but we’ll take the points because they’re free.

Florida -2 vs. Ohio State - Gator Bowl

These aren’t the same Gator and Buckeye teams that we’ve become accustomed to and they’re now programs in a touchy transitional period. With the coaching change dominating the headlines in Columbus over the past month and a half, these players are definitely playing with a sense of urgency because they know Urban Meyer’s eyes are upon them -like Chuck Norris in ‘Walker, Texas Ranger’- for next season’s personnel decisions. Florida is on a mission to stick it to their former coach and Will Muschamp is the tye of coach, when given a month, will come together will one hell of a gameplan. Throw in a few dozen NFL prospects on the Florida roster and I’ll take speed, experience at the QB and coaching positions and a defense that still flies around the field with the best of them.

Florida wins this ugly game 26-20.

South Carolina -2.5 vs. Nebraska - Capital One Bowl

This is another Bowl that provides constant excitement and the most entertaining facet of this matchup is going to come along the offensive and defensive lines. South Carolina has one of the most dominant and athletic defensive groups in the country highlihgted by Melvin Ingram and freshman sensation JaDaveon Clowney, who has burst onto the SEC scene as a true frosh and done some things that are downright jaw-dropping. The Gamecocks can run a lot of pro schemes with their front seven, allowing them to wreak havoc all over the field. The same way the Steelers are going to beat the bag out of Tim Tebow and the Broncos next week is what the Gamecocks are going to do to Taylor Martinez today.

The Gamecocks roll behind All-Everything WR Alshon Jeffery, 44-31, and are a QB away from being serious contenders for a National Championship in 2012.

Oregon vs. Wisconsin - OVER 74- Rose Bowl

Both of these teams feature explosive offensive squads but more importantly are so susceptible to the big play that this must have been a difficult number for Vegas to make. The Ducks feature a bevy of running backs that can break loose but their special teams constantly puts them in a position to score, which is a bonus for Chip Kelly. Brett Beilema’s squad emphasizes a steady running game but the coach can’t help but utilize his tremendous fourth-year starting signal caller Russell Wilson, who made the seamless transition from NC State to the Badgers. I can see this game being tied at 35 sometime in the third quarter, which is what we’re looking for.

Oregon eventually wins this matchup, 51-45, and we get our number convincingly.

Virginia Tech +2.5 vs. Michigan - Sugar Bowl

For the life of me I can not understand how the Hokies are dogs in this game? They played a tougher schedule than the Wolverines, who’s record was boosted by Ohio State’s downfall, Notre Dame’s inconsistentcy and Nebraska’s inability to throw the ball. I don’t like to play the “What If?” game but Virginia Tech is two close losses to Clemson from playing for the National Championship and even though Denard Robinson is similar to Tajh Boyd, I can’t see the Wolverines stopping Logan Thomas and David Wilson for sixty minutes tonight. Neither team has played well in their most recent bowl games so you can throw history out the window for this one. Look for Logan Thomas to make his first statement in what should be a legit 2012 Heisman Trophy season for the big QB.

Virginia Tech wins this game on the field, 31-19, but we’ll take the points because they’re free.

Falcons -10.5 vs. Bucs

I can’t recall a team mailing it in the way Tampa Bay has over the last four weeks of the regular season and they’re doing everything in their power to get Raheem Morris fired. I don’t expect that to stop with a pity party during the week so we’ll take one of the strongest running teams in the league against an awful offense that could score in a whore house with a fist full of Benjamins!

Atlanta rolls, 34-10, and claims the fifth spot in the NFC.

Ravens -3 @ Bengals

The Bengals have overachieved all season long but they haven’t been able to break through against the best teams in their own division. It’s simple as this: I haven’t picked the Bengals in games against the elite teams in the AFC and I damn sure aint gonna start in Week 17!

Ravens win 27-20 and claim the 3-seed in the AFC.

Giants -3 vs. Cowboys

Who wants it more? That’s what this game is going to come down to and the track record says the Giants are going to be the ones going to the playoffs come Monday morning. They found a semblance of a running game last week against the Jets while Dallas went out and beat itself up against a Philadelphia team that is probably laughing at Tony Romo right now. The Cowboys aren’t too far away from becoming a perennial playoff contender but that’s gonna have to wait until next year.

New York rolls Dallas, 37-24, and Jason Garrett becomes a wanted man for the wrong reason!

Giants vs. Cowboys - OVER 47.5

We did this a few weeks ago and we’re going back to the well. Each team is susceptible to the deep ball and they both have quarterbacks who can exploit that weakness. Enough said!

Jets +3 @ Dolphins

The Jets aren’t as bad as they played against the Giants last weekend and the Dolphins aren’t as good as they played against the Patriots last weekend. New York needs a ton of stuff to go right for them in order to reach the playoffs but all of it isn’t necessarily that outrageous and it just might happen. I expect the Jets to turn to their running game a lot more than they did against the Giants and stop being so one dimensional. That should be enough to slide past the Dolphins in Miami.

The Jets win straight up 24-19 but we’ll take the points because they’re free.

North Carolina +6 vs. Missouri - Independance Bowl

I don’t need to tell this crew but there’s no better motivator than the almighty dollar. North Carolina has a bevy of young stars on its roster -not to mention their coach is battling to keep his job- which means they’ll be playing extra hard this Monday afternoon. Quinton Coples and crew will keep this game close throughout and may even pull it out in the end.

North Carolina wins 24-21 and more importantly takes home the money!

Western Mich +3 vs. Purdue - Little Ceasers Bowl

Purdue has the name recognition but Western Michigan actually has the better, more explosive and productive players on their roster, with quarterback Alex Carder and wide receiver Jordan White who have been one of the more statistically impressive combinations in college football this season. Purdue will rely heavily on the run but will be hard pressed to keep up with Carder and White down the stretch.

Western Michigan wins straight up, 34-23, but we’ll take the points because they’re free.

Louisville +1 vs. North Carolina St - BELK Bowl

This is a story of two programs heading in the opposite direction. The future looks bright for Louisville, as Teddy Bridgewater seems like a pretty safe bet to lead the Cardinals into the next few seasons. Louisville has also been a pain in the ass to ACC teams in the past, going 13-2 ATS against ACC foes over the past fifteen contests and are also 6-0 as an underdog ATS this year.

Louisville wins an otherwise meaningless bowl game 31-27.

***I had to take a little step back for a day, and rightfully so considering the amounto fgarbage football that we’ve seen on television over the last week. The decent Bowl games are starting to come around and so should we.

FSU -3.5 vs. Notre Dame - Champs Sports Bowl

Notre Dame lines are always skewed a couple points and this game is no different. The Irish come into this one after a somewhat disappointing season but the same can be said for their opponent, who were many expert’s choice as a darkhorse for a National Championship. The Seminoles still have the Irish out-skilled at most positions especially along the lines where ND has made a small difference but don’t have the depth or athleticism of FSU quite yet. The quarterback play in this game should be poor but the ‘Noles will be able to stifle Notre Dame’s running game which will make all the difference in a low-scoring battle.

FSU wins 32-19 in a game that would have been awesome fifteen years ago and might be great within the next five.

Baylor -9.5 vs. Washington

Baylor’s RG3 was a worthy winner of the Heisman but Washington also has their own weapon in QB Keith Price who will be one of the darkhorse candidates for next year’s Trophy. Still, Baylor’s weapons are far too great for the Huskies to hang with in this one and the going-out party for Griffin III should be quite the scene!

Baylor puts up a double-nickel, winning 55-23 and sends RG3 out with a bang.

Mississippi State -6.5 vs. Wake Forest - Music City Bowl

This was supposed to be the season Dan Mullen brought Mississippi State to the next level but the underdevelopment of QB Chris Relf was a big reason why the BUlldogs never reached their full potential. Relf gets the start in this game and is playing for the small chance to play at the next level while Wake is simply happy to be here. Their schedules couldn’t have been more opposite and Wake didn’t beat a worthy opponent outside ofFlorida State whom they snuck up on. Mississippi St doesn’t have a plethora of big wins but they;ve braved a tough SEC schedule and came out with a .500 record and should probably be double-digit favorites in this one.

Miss St wins a low scoring battle, 24-13, in Mullen’s final game as Bulldogs head coach and gets a bigger job in the offseason.

Oklahoma -14 vs. Iowa - Insight Bowl

Iowa plays well in Bowl games, and I appreciate that fact. But this Iowa team has probably already overachieved simply by making it to the Insight Bowl and have to face an Oklahoma team that can score in bunches. Landry Jones has a lot to prove in this one and it could make the difference in whether or not he stays in Norman for another season or departs for the NFL. I expect the latter to happen after a big game against a depleted Iowa secondary who lose a ton of talent to the Draft over the past few seasons and hasn’t completely recovered just yet.

Oklahoma puts a whoopin’ on the Hawkeyes tot he tune of 44-20 and comes away with a victory in Jones’ last game under center.

Texas A&M -10 vs. Northwestern - Meineke Car Care Bowl

I don’t like betting against Northwestern because Pat Fitzgerald is one of the best coaches in the country and has done a fantastic job at his alma mater but the Wildcats are up against it in this one. A&M is extremely talented at the skill posiitons but can also get after th equarterback defensively and are tough along both lines. I’m actually surprised this spread isn’t a little higher. Even though we love dogs, we’re gonna have to stick with the chalk here and take the Aggies.

A&M wins 47-34 in a high-scoring affair. I like the OVER -70- here as well.

Cardinals +4 @ Bengals

Arizona has been riding John Skelton to a four-game win streak and still has playoff hopes, regardless of how slim they might be. The Bengals are also alive in the AFC race so we’re likely to see both teams play a focused game on Sunday. The X-factor in this one will be Skelton’s ability to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald to open up the passing game which has helped Arizona so much during this past month. While the Bengals will try to slow the game down by running the ball, Arizona’s secondary will play tight on AJ Green, Cincy’s main downfield weapon. As long as they can keep Green under wraps they should be alright.

Zona wins this matchup straight up, 27-23, but we’ll take the points because they’re free!

Lions -1 vs. Chargers

Philip Rivers has been hot recently but has struggled this year when he’s faced pressure up the middle, the strength of Detroit’s defense. I expect the Lions to keep Rivers on the move and uncomfortable throughout the game with a defensive scheme that will leave Rivers both wild and wounded. The Lions know they can clinch a playoff berth with a win against San Diego and don’t want to depend on a win next weekend against the Packers to get in.

Detroit wins by a field goal, 24-21, but it’s enough to cover at the end of the day.

Ravens -12.5 vs. Browns

The Ravens are playing for home field advantage in the playoffs and face a fairly easy opponent this weekend. Joe Flacco and company were beaten up by a hot San Diego team last weekend but they should be able to bounce back and put it on a divisional opponent that is weak at the skill positions and playing for pride, something Cleveland lost a long time ago.

Baltimore wins handily, 37-13, and scores almost every way possible against the Browns.

49ers -1 @ Seahawks

Physical football is like a hot chick who puts out and also happened to have graduated from MIT but is friends with a bunch of supermodels. You can take them anywhere and not have to worry about the outcome at the end of the night. There is no shame in introducing either to your family or friends because they’re going to be consistent regardless of who you happen to be around and at the end of the night you’re going to win.San Fran is our date of Saturday and instead of us having to pay for dinner they’ll pick up the tab.

The Niners win a tough road matchup, 24-20, and cover.

Eagles @ Cowboys - OVER 50.5

This is going to be a shoot-out and Jerry Jones had every right to be afraid of what could happen once the Eagles caught a little bit of fire. Both teams don’t have much of a defense regardless of how over-hyped the off-season signings were for Philly. They’ll each struggle to contain the opposing quarterback which should lead to a ton of big plays and each team scoring early and often.

With a final score of 37-34, and who the hell knows who actually wins, we don’t have to worry about a last second TD to claim our rize money in this game.

Here’s what we should have witnessed this weekend:

#5 Oregon 41
#12 Virginia Tech 27

Unable to stop the 3-headed monster of LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner and Darren Thomas on the offensive end, Virginia Tech is forced to turn to the passing game a little too early and end up playing directly into Oregon’s game. Logan Thomas does make his first impression in what should be a formidable 2012 Heisman Trophy run but the lack of carries for David Wilson is what ultimately kills Frank Beamer’s squad. James finishes with 187 yards and 2 TDs on 23 carries to go along with 2 receptions for 28 yards and another score. Thomas finishes 24-40 for 346 yards and three scores but most of the yardage comes when the game is out of hand.

The most exciting moment comes when the Ducks run a double-reverse and Barner hands off to a sweeping James late in the second quarter for a 76-yard touchdown scamper, putting the Ducks up for good, 28-13.

#11 Baylor 45
#6 Arkansas 41

Down by three points with under two minutes to go, newly crowned Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III gets an opportunity to put the finishing touches on his stunning season and doesn’t disappoint. After converting a 4th-and-12 in his own territory by escaping a sack and diving for the first down, Griffin finds Kendall Wright for a 15-yard touchdown pass as time runs out. A multitude of players introduce themselves to a national audience including Arkansas studs QB Tyler Wilson and WR/KR Joey Adams and Baylor WR Wright, who holds every receiving record in the school’s football history. A shoot-out from start to finish, this game is played clean as each team only commits one turnover apiece and highlights are abundant.

Adams dazzles the NFL scouts in attendance with two return touchdowns, one punt and one kickoff to begin the second half. Griffin III finishes 32-42 for 418 yards and 5 TDs but Terrence Ganaway continues to be the unsung hero for Baylor, rushing for over 150-yards for the third straight game and the fifth time this season.

#7 Boise State 27
#10 Wisconsin 20

Wisconsin comes into this game favored by 3.5 points with most of gambling America convinced that they will run directly over the Broncos and into the 2nd round of the playoffs. What they don’t realize is that Boise State’s defensive line is as athletic and explosive as any team in the country and they step up to the challenge of playing against the Badgers road-grating offensive line. The Broncos hold Montee Ball and James White to a combined 130 yards on 38 carries, sack Russell Wilson on multiple play-action plays and disrupt him on straight drop backs. Kellen Moore steps up and delivers in the fourth quarter, ultimately putting Boise ahead to stay with 6 minutes to play on a long touchdown drive, culminated by Doug Martin’s 8-yard TD run. After a Wilson interception, the Boise kicking game comes through and nails a 48-yard field goal to push the lead to seven.

The highlight of the night comes with Wisconsin driving late in the fourth quarter when Jerrell Gavins steps in front of a Wilson pass and makes a spectacular one-handed catch on the 13-yard line and returns it to midfield, as Ball barely saves a touchdown that would have put the game out of reach. The pick and return lead to the field goal that puts the Broncos up seven.

#9 Southern Cal 31
#8 South Carolina 28

In what becomes the most physical 1st round matchup of the day, Southern Cal’s young defense steps up and silences the “other” USC by cutting a fourth quarter drive short, giving Matt Barkley the chance to put his team in field goal territory and win. The most evenly matched of the first round games, it goes off as a “pick ‘em” with Southern Cal given a slight edge considering this game is played in Columbia, SC. The Gamecocks lack of elite quarterback play comes back to bite them though, as Alshon Jeffery finds himself open on multiple occasion but finishes the game with only 4 receptions for 48 yards, his seventh game of the season with less than fifty yards despite being one of the most talented athletes in the country. Southern Cal’s two big-time receivers, Robert Woods and Marqise Lee, both go over 100 yards for the game and open America’s eyes up to what could be the best team in the country in 2012 if Barkley were to come back to school. The national audience is also thankful that the Trojans postseason ban is lifted once the NCAA comes to their senses, figures out a reasonable playoff system and realizes this team shouldn’t be punished for the actions of a player that hasn’t played for them in five years.

The individual battle of the night takes place on the lines, with stud freshman DE JaDaveon Clowney matching up against unanimous top-3 NFL Draft pick LT Matt Kalil. Clowney does record a sack by chasing Barkley down from the backside on a broken play, showing his freakish athleticism, but he is kept in check by Kalil’s strength and perfect technique for most of the game.

Driving for the go-ahead score with under two minutes left and the scored tied at 28, Gamecocks QB Conor Shaw gets crushed from the blind side by LB Chris Galippo and the football flutters into Dion Bailey’s arms on the Southern Cal 30-yard line with 1:12 left in the game. With no timeouts left, Barkley puts on a clinic and gets the ball into the red zone on a mix of short passes to Lee and two deep outs to Woods on the sidelines before giving way Andre Heidari for a 28-yard field goal to remain perfect inside of 30 yards for the season.

Next Week’s Matchups:

#11 Baylor @ #1 LSU
Robert Griffin III takes the show on the road against the best secondary he’s ever faced while the LSU defense faces the most dynamic quarterback in the country.

#9 Southern Cal @ #2 Alabama
Trent Richardson gets an opportunity to pound his way through a Southern Cal defense that has had some issues against the run this year, while Matt Barkley faces a defense that hasn’t had a problem against anyone!

#7 Boise State @ #3 Stanford
Kellen Moore and Andrew Luck square off in a battle of the winningest QB in the history of college football and the future #1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.

#5 Oregon @ #4 Oklahoma State
They better warm up the scoreboard in anticipation for this one because these teams combine to average over 95 points per game.

And the BCS is the best we can come up with? Give me a break! - Fireman Mike

Giants -6.5 vs. Redskins

Like I’ve already stated I have been fooled by the Giants this season, thinking thye’ve finally put it all together when they haven’t but there are a few things about this game that really stand out to me and should ultimately put the Giants over the top. First of all, they’ve been getting to the quarterback at an outstanding rate recently and once you knock Rex Grossman on his ass a few times he tends to implode. Secondly, they’ve done a good job protecting Eli Manning and, more importantly, he’s done an excellent job of reading the blitz and getting the ball out of his hands with extreme quickness and impeccable timing. The Giants also have revenge on their minds this weekend, as it looked for a while that their opeing weekend loss to these Redskins could have cost them dearly in the NFC East race. Now that they control their own destiny, look for them to step on the Redskins neck early on Sunday.

The Giants win big, 44-27, and the Skins score most of their points in garbage time.

Patriots -9 @ Broncos

Early in the week almost 90% of the gambling public had Tom Brady and Co. locked in for one of their weekly guarantees. Things have changed drastically and even though the line has risen I still like the Pats to run away with this game. Regardless of how good the Broncos defense has been playing, nobody expects them to hold the Pats under 30 points, do they? Brady leads an extremely efficient offensive cast that will not only score early but has the uncanny ability to answer scores with touchdowns of their own. Tim Tebow simply isn’t built to get into a shoot-out with one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL at this point in his career. When he had to start throwing early against the Lions it quickly became a debacle. I expect the same to happen here.

New England wins big, 34-16, and Tebow-mania comes back down to Earth for a week.

Seahawks +3.5 @ Bears

It would do the franchise a ton of good if the Sea-chickens would start losing games and cement itself in the top-10 of the 2012 NFL Draft but the entire team hasn’t gotten that message and they are playing really good football right now. They rely on Marshawn Lynch heavily and in a contract year he has delivered the goods. Their ability to keep the ball on the ground and control the pace of the game enables them to have a ton of confidence in the fourth quarter and against this Bears team that looks lost right now, that means a lot.

The Seahawks win this game, 22-17, and stay in the playoff hunt regardless of how useless their 8th place finish in the NFC will ultimately be. Again, we’ll take the points because they’re free though!

Jets +3 @ Eagles

This is the Jets time of the year. They have been flying under the radar due to the emergence of a quarterback that completes less than 50% of his passes and pray a lot. Contrary to what we’ve heard over the last few years, Rex Ryan is relishing being in the background for now but that might end after the Jets dismantle Mike Vick and the Eagles this weekend. Philly has continuously fooled Vegas throughout the 2011 season and the books out in the desert seem to be back on the Eagles wagon after they beat one of the last winless teams in the league last weekend. We’re not fooled!

The Jets win this game on the field, 27-17, and quietly start to wrap up a playoff berth in the AFC.

Ravens @ Chargers - OVER 44.5

Both of these teams have big play ability but as late as two weeks ago I probably wouldn’t have liked this play. But Philip Rivers has gotten back on track and has found his feet in the pocket. In his biggest years, he manipulated the pocket better than 90% of the QBs in the NFL but until the last few weeks he looked frightened because of a lack of protection. He’s back and so is Joe Flacco, which could point to an usually high-scoring contest on Sunday Night. The best part is that you can always count on a few scores set up by the Baltimore defense, even more so now that Rivers has to make almost all of the Chargers big plays on his own and forces the ball deep way too often. There’s a give and take there, but it benefits us both ways with this play.

The Ravens win, 34-28, and the game goes OVER rather quickly.

Temple -7 vs. Wyoming - New Mexico Bowl

The Owls enter this game as the 7th best running team in the country while Wyoming is near the bottom of the list defending the ground game. Temple has a stable of backs that can each explode for over 100-yards apiece in any given game but also have a decent enough athlete at the quarterback position to keep opposing D’s honest throughout the game. I expect Temple to take full advantage of their Bowl invitation and even use their snub last year as some motivation in New Mexico. Wyoming can throw the ball fairly well but they’ll have to be too one-dimensional once they fall behind early.

Temple wins 37-17 and covers easily, running their record to 20-5 against the spread over the last three years when playing on a Saturday.

Ohio University + 1.5 vs. Utah State - Idaho Potato Bowl

The Bobcats have a 7-1 record against the spread when facing a winning team over the last three season, proving they play up to their competition. Had they not blown a 20-0 third quarter lead in the MAC Championship game, they’d be playing in a much better bowl game. Tyler Tettleton is a typical MAC quarterback, a big strong-armed signal caller who steps up at the right time and leads his underrated teammates to an overwhelming victory in big games. Utah State can put points on the board but they’ll be playing directly into the Bobcats hands if they choose to go that route.

Ohio wins straight up, 34-31, but we’ll take the points because they’re free!

San Diego St -4 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette - New Orleans Bowl

What is essentially a home game for ULL, San Diego State will force the tempo and feed the ball to one of the best running backs in the country in Ronnie Hillman. His ability to rack up yards will allow them to set up big plays through the air as well but he will ultimately be the key for the Aztecs. Considering Hillman will have the national audience to himself for the first time in his career I expect a huge game on his part while leading the Aztecs to victory in the process.

SDSU wins 41-28 and Hillman continues to climb the career rushing lists with his eyes on Marshall Faulk when it’s all said and done.

Marshall +4.5 vs. Florida International - Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl

Florida International has been absolutely terrible when they’ve had time to think about the next game. They are 2-12 against the spread in their last fourteen games when they’ve had more than a week off. Marshall has also been a very good dome team over the years and they keep it on the ground, control the ball and can beat you through the air when necessary. FIU might have a little more team speed but something isn’t right with your coaching staff when you’re worse when you have more time to prepare for an opponent.

Marshall wins this game on the field, 27-24, but we’ll take the points because they’re free.

TCU -9 vs. Louisiana Tech - Poinsettia Bowl

The Horned Frogs have been extremely tough against some of the more high-powered offensive units in the nation but also have a quarterback that is comfortable in a shoot-out if a game were to go that route. Casey Paschall is one of the most underrated signal-callers in the nation and has some weapons around him to help. Louisiana Tech is a siltent cover, having gone 10-2 on the season against the spread but that was against the likes of San Jose St, New Meixco St and a terrible Ole Miss team. TCU had a down year considering what they’ve become accustomed to over the years but they have the horses to come back and have a big year in 2012. This will be their first step.

TCU wins big, 44-27, and covers handily.

Boise St -14 vs. Arizona State - Las Vegas Bowl

Both of these teams were downright terrible against the sread this season but for much different reasons. The Sun Devils were overrated from the beginning of the season while the Broncos were simply favored by a ton in every game they played except for a few. ASU does have a decent defense but this Boise team is trying to cap off a four-year run that is almost unprecedented in the history of college football. Kellen Moore is already the all-time winningest quarterback in college football history and his over-50 wins is almost an untouchable mark. The Broncos don’t get enough credit for their defense, especially their front four which is one of the most athletic in the college game. I see Boise clicking on all fronts on Thursday night and blowing out an ASU team that is in between coaching staffs and is expecting some of their best athletes to move on after this game.

Boise blows out another unworthy opponent 44-24 and takes the money in Moore’s final game as signal-caller for the Broncos.

Nevada vs. Southern Miss - OVER 63 - Hawaii Bowl

Both of these teams have high powered offenses and while Southern Miss is clearly the better, hotter and streakier team I simply can’t trust them giving nine points to a team as well coached as Nevada. The Pistol offense that they run can put points on the board in a hurry and if Southern Miss repeats anything close to what they did against Houston in the Conference USA Championship game we could see a combined score somewhere in the mid-80’s.

Southern Miss wins in overtime 47-44 on a field goal after a miss by the Wolfpack.

Here’s what we would have to look forward to over the next four weeks, instead of agonally waiting while teams get a month to prepare for one another. Which is perfectly normal, because every team gets a MONTH to prepare for their opponents, right?

I’ll give you what I believe would be the final scores of these matchups during the dark period of December. The top 12 teams make the playoffs with the top four getting a bye.

#1 Seed: LSU Tigers

They’ve earned every thing they have right now, and some. Les Miles has guided his team through a QB controversy that would have derailed a lesser coach and program. But the Tigers rallied to beat Alabama and Arkansas along with some of the best programs in the country in route to a perfect 12-0 regular season record.

#2 Seed: Alabama Crimson Tide

The SEC could probably hold their own post season tournament with the top four teams and nobody would have a problem naming the winner the National Champion. Alabama has everything except a star quarterback but the same can be said about the only team to best them this season, LSU. They sure have enough star power with Trent Richardson and a tremendous defensive squad to boot.

#3 Seed: Stanford Cardinal

Andre Luck and his resume propel the Cardinal to the third seed and a home game for the first round of the College Football Playoffs. The most underrated aspect of this year’s squad is their toughness. They has an SEC-quality line to go along with a running game that helped ice a ton of games. Unfortunately, their run defense didn’t adopt the same tough attitude as their highly skilled O-line.

#4 Seed: Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Cowboys have enough offense to hang with anybody in the country but their defense was suspect for most of the season. That was at least until they played in-state rival Oklahoma and held them to 10-points, or about 39 less than what they had given up to the Sooners in their previous nine meetings!

#5 Seed: Oregon Ducks

Outside of the SEC the way to be dominant within your conference is to rack points up in a hurry, and the Oregon Ducks may have invented the formula. Their stable of horses in the backfield are among the most talented the college game has come across in quite some time and they confidently marched down the field on every team they played.

#6 Seed: Arkansas Razorbacks

If Arkansas played in any other conference in the country we would probably be talking about them matching up against LSU in the title game but that could probably be said for three or four other SEC teams as well. When Ryan Mallett went down with an injury last season we caught a glimpse of what Tyler Wilson could do and he definitely didn’t disappoint when he was handed the reins in 2011. Instead of playing for a chance to win the National Title, as one of the top-8 teams college football should, they’ll match up with Kansas State in their Bowl Game. Really!?

#7 Seed: Boise State Broncos

Finally Kellen Moore and Co. get a chance to prove they’re a worthy opponent on the national stage. Don’t tell me every game matters in college football when more than half the teams in D1-A literally have NO chance to play for a title and know that fact when they start the season. I don’t care about “being fair”, nothing in life is “fair”. But the BCS simply doesn’t make sense and those in charge insult our intelligence every year by claiming it’s the best system they can come up with.

#8 Seed: USC Trojans

In my playoffs the best teams in college football make it, and we don’t put teams on probation for the sins of someone who hasn’t put their uniform on in five years. Matt Barkley’s crew is so hot right now that they go into the playoffs as one of the favorites to knock off one of the SEC powers.

#9 Seed: South Carolina Gamecocks

The Old Ball Coach put together one of the most athletic rosters in college football in 2011 but due to the dominance of Bama and LSU they were overshadowed from beginning to end. Alshon Jeffery is one of the finest WR prospects in the country but Connor Shaw wasn’t the most gifted passer in the league, which prohibited him from reaching his full potential as a Gamecock.

#10 Seed: Wisconsin Badgers

The Badgers are two wild losses away from playing for a National Championship. But instead of realizing their season was over after a mid-season loss to Michigan State, they fought hard to win their conference and solidify their spot in the playoffs. Every game would truly matter under a playoff system as EVERY team would have a shot and would genuinely be playing for a chance at a title from start to finish.

#11 Seed: Baylor Bears

The Bears make it in after a big win over Texas and supplant Kansas State during the selection process, probably based on the star power of Robert Griffin III. Baylor doesn’t necessarilly have enough defense to hang with the best teams in the country but nobody has an answer for RG3, someone who will give the best defensive coordinators nightmares.

#12 Seed: Virginia Tech Hokies

They couldn’t find a way to beat Clemson but they found their way into the playoffs based on the fact that their losses were “better” than the rest of the teams in contention. Logan Thomas gets a chance to make his first statement for the 2012 Heisman Trophy, as the Hokies go on the road to Oregon in one of the most hostile venues in the country.

New Orleans -3.5 @ Tennessee

The Saints are a different team on the road but they are clicking at this point in the season while the Titans have finally come to the realization that they are probably better off losing the rest of their games this season and solidifying a quality draft choice to lead them into the future. New Orleans is 7-3 against the spread as a favorite this season and have covered easily in many of those contests. Drew Brees is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single season yardage mark and will possibly pass his total with one game remaining on the schedule. Expect big plays from the Saints this weekend and while Brees attempt total won’t be one of his highest but his yardage total will be as Mark Ingram and the Saints running game will open up huge plays downfield for Brees.

The Saints dominate from the jump and win 34-13 in a contest that is never really close.

Oakland +11.5 @ Green Bay

The Raiders are still very much in the hunt for an AFC West title and with Tim Tebow and the Broncos as their only real threat I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Raiders play up to their competition and actually come away with a victory in Green Bay this weekend. Oakland currently owns a 5-1 record ATS on the road this season, as they seem to slow the game down and let it come to them when they’re outside of Oak-town. The Packers showed some extremely large holes in their defensive secondary last weekend against the Giants, holes that were obvious all season long but were hidden by their ability to force turnovers at opportune times. It will be interesting to see how Charles Woodson returns from his concussion and if he isn’t full strength the Pack will have to replace his leadership and shut down ability with a better pass rush. The Raiders might just be wild enough to pin their ears back and disrupt Aaron Rodgers to throw him off his game and force Green Bay to use their running game more than they’re accustomed to.

Green Bay pulls off another close game with a late-game drive and field goal but Oakland takes the money after a 31-28 loss.

Atlanta @ Carolina UNDER 47

The Falcons got their wings clipped last weekend against the Texans and were held to 10 points. Meanwhile, the Panthers put up 38 points against a Tampa Bay team that has curled into the fetal position and died for the 2011 season. Atlanta has always been a good cover team late in the season under Matt Ryan and their defense has been able to hold teams to reasonable totals throughout the year. These two teams have finished under the total in 13 of their last 16 meetings and I don’t expect things to change this weekend.

Atlanta pulls away with a late touchdown but defense in the story here and the Falcons win 24-13.

New York Giants +3.5 @ Dallas

Most quarterbacks find it a little more difficult to perform on the road. But most quarterbacks don’t have the name “Manning” on their back either. Eli has been eerily consistent on the road throughout his career, in terms of both statistics and his win-loss record. The Giants have played up to their competition throughout the season and despite their erratic play still own their destiny going forward in the NFC East race. Tony Romo and Co. have done nothing but disappoint lat ein the season and now that the calendar has flipped to December I expect the same old letdown in Dallas. The Cowboys are also 1-6 ATS against conference opponents this season, proving to be antithesis of the Giants in terms of playing up and down to their competition.

New York wins this big game straight up, 41-37, but we’ll take the points because they’re free.

NYG @ Dallas OVER 49.5

Both of these teams can put points on the board in a hurry and, unless they’re getting after the quarterback, both are extremely suscptible to the deep ball. That’s an equation for a lot of points to be put on the board Sunday Night. This is the first time all season we’re taking two bets on the same game but we’re essentially betting on the Giants to score more than 23-points in this game. If they do, the worst we finish our week with is a push. Looking back on their offensive production throughout the seasona nd Dallas’ inability to keep games within reach against conference opponents, this is my best bet of the weekend.

New York wins 41-37 but all we care about is the total in this case and we get our points by the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Baylor -3 vs. Texas

The Bears can hang points on any team in America and while the Longhorns have one of the better defensive teams in the Big 12, that’s not saying much. They have eleven guys on the field who give a shit so they have an instant advantage over the rest of the conference. If you score over 28 points on the Longhorns you have a fantastic chance of winning the game. Conversely, the Longhorns would be elated if they held Robert Griffin III and Co. to 28 or fewer. Baylor is 6-0 ATS at home this season, a streak I don’t expect to be broken this weekend.

Baylor wins their biggest game of the season for recruiting purposes, 41-20, and RG3 celebrates bringing his school to an entirely different level with another four-TD game.

Michigan State @ Wisconsin OVER 55 - Big Ten Championship Game

The Badgers looked unbeatable early in the year but it was proven too good to be true by the likes of the Spartans and Ohio State along the way. Vegas thinks the Badgers are playing at a much higher level this time around but the Spartans have been just as hot recently. Kirk Cousins and his trio of fine receivers allow the SPartans to be multi-faceted but also strike quickly if they happen to be trailing. Wisconsin should win this game but they definitely won’t run away with it at any point and I think the Spartans actually pull it out again late. Meanwhile, the Badgers high-octane offense keeps scoring and runs up the points early and often.

Michigan State wins, 37-34, but we’re only worried about the point total.

LSU -13.5 vs. Georgia - SEC Championship Game

The “experts” have been trying to convince us that the Bulldogs have an actual chance of winning this game but Mark Richt’s crew is far and away behind the other top programs in the SEC and will need a series of great recruiting classes in order to somehow overtake LSU, Bama, Arkansas, South Carolina and even Florida for that matter. Georgia is seriously overmatched in this game and the LSU defense will expose them early in the game, leading to multiple short-drive touchdowns.

LSU rolls to the BCS Championship Game with a 37-13 win against the Bulldogs.

Steelers -7 vs. Bengals

In order to save some time I’ll refer you to the week of November 13th.

Pittsburgh pounds the hell out of the reeling Bengals, 33-19, and easily cover.

Atlanta @ Houston OVER 37.5

After the first few weeks of the season you couldn’t find an Over/Under below a total in the high-40’s. The NFL has corrected itself in recent weeks and the totals have become a lot more reasonable but some are a little low. Most think the Texans are going to falter without Matt Schaub but the truth is they have a balanced enough attack to put points on the board and actually matchup really well with the Falcons. Balanced matchups usually make for close games and as long as the winner of this game scores in the low-20s we’re going to be sitting pretty. I expect the game to go over rather early.

Atlanta pulls out a 27-24 win in overtime but we go over the total early in the fourth quarter.

It finally seems like a reasonable time to rank the NFL squads and with a few criteria in mind:

- The quality of opponents they’ve face thus far

- Injury situations, some which have crippled teams, others that have provided teams with a revelation at predominant positions

- The road ahead. Some teams have a mountain to climb going forward while others have already faced the most demanding part of their schedule

- This a outwardly a gambling website, so there will be some thoughts pertaining to whether teams bury their weakest opponents or have shown an inability to cut the throat of their counter parts when it counts

Without further ado, here is the first installment of Fireman Mike’s 2011 NFL Ratings:

1. Packers (11-0) - Hyperbole is beaten to a bloody pulp in this day and age but I can honestly say Aaron Rodgers is playing the QB position better than anyone I’ve witnessed in my lifetime. He has a plethora of weapons and uses them at an unprecedented pace.

2. Ravens (8-3) - A win over the 49ers proved how well they play against quality competition but losses to three teams under .500 makes one wonder. Wonder about what, I don’t know but I expect Baltimore to be there in the end.

3. Saints (7-3) - The good news: New Orleans hasn’t hit their stride, meaning they could be playing their best football at the end of the year when it counts. The bad news: That stride better come quick or they’ll miss a golden opportunity.

4. 49ers (9-2) - They have a Super Bowl caliber defensive scheme, from the personnel down to the coaching staff. But questions remain about how far a quarterback like Alex Smith can carry a team.

5. Steelers (7-3) - Pittsburgh is the one team in this league that can enforce their will on an opponent or -if the mood strikes- start heaving deep balls to Mike Wallace and allow Big Ben to do his thing.

6. Falcons (7-3) - A different team has represented the NFC in the Super Bowl for the past ten years. Before the season Atlanta seemed to be the only realistic bidder to seal that deal but with the likes of San Fran, Detroit and Dallas they may have some company.

7. Giants (6-4) - When you have a front four that can disrupt, aggravate and force the quarterback of his timing from every conceivable angle you have a chance ot beat anybody. When you have no running game, you can lose to anybody. Ask Tom Coughlin.

8. Patriots (7-3) - They are going to be the #1 seed in the AFC after they finish rolling through their paper thin schedule in the next two months but once the playoffs come somebody on that no-name defense has to take charge and make some plays.

9. Cowboys (7-4) - Squeeked out a win against a feisty Miami team but it’s damn near impossible to comfortably place a wager on this team. If they show up three more times over the course of the next five weeks I’ll be shocked.

10. Lions (7-4) - I’m not sure what the deal is with Matt Stafford but he’s going to have to make some adjustments and improvements in order to lead this team to a playoff berth. Detroit is obviously a few years away but questions at primary positions have to be answered before that final step is taken. Ask the New York Jets.

11. Texans (7-3) - The biggest question going forward is whether or not Matt Leinhart has matured enough to lead a team to the playoffs. A team that has some distance between teams behind them but -as we’ve all seen before- Leinhart is capable of anything, good or bad.

12. Bears (7-3) - Caleb Hanie is obviously the X-factor. If he can manage a game -a term I hate using more than anything!- the Bears will remain in every game they have left. But how can one imagine they’ll have enough firepower to stick with Green Bay or even Detroit for that matter?

13. Raiders (6-4) - Carson Palmer will continue to pay dividends for Oakland, a team that was in more desperate need of a quarterback than anyone could even articulate. He’s borught instant credibility to the franchise, unfortunately he hasn’t had the same affect on the AFC West.

14. Jets (5-5) - At some point Rex Ryan’s ass is gonna start haveing to paying the checks that his mouth promises. And not the $75,000 kinds that he writes to the league office for being an overbearing dick when the Jets lose.

15. Bengals (6-4) - They had a nice run but definitely got exposed over the last two weeks against the cream of the crop of the AFC, Baltimore and Pitt. There are no moral victories in this league, and it’s very comforting to know Andy Dalton doesn’t give a damn about them either! Cincy is going to be in good hands for the near future.

Playoff Prognostication

NFC:

1. Green Bay (14-2)
2. San Fransisco (12-4)
3. New Orleans (11-5)
4. NY Giants (10-6)
5. Atlanta (11-5)
6. Dallas (10-6)

AFC

1. New England (13-3)
2. Baltimore (12-4)
3. Houston (11-5)
4. Oakland (9-7)
5. Pittsburgh (11-5)
6. New York Jets (10-6)

Here’s how they rank going into arguably the most important weekend of the season in my eyes.

1. Robert Griffin III, Baylor JR. Quarterback

2011 Stats: 3,572 Yds 72.9 Com% 10.63 YPA 33 TDs 5 INTs 191.7 QB Rating

Defining Moment: Not only did RG3 open the season against a TCU program that waltzed into the opening game thinking they were going to send an early message but he hung with them score for score to post a 50-48 victory. But that wasn’t his defining moment! With Oklahoma needing a win to cement themselves into the minds of voters as a possible BCS-Championship worthy team, Griffin led his offense on a late drive to put the dagger in Landry Jones’ heart, a QB who before the season started would have been head and shoulders above Griffin III in any Heisman poll. Griffin has been the leader inmy mind ever since that game.

NFL Outlook: Griffin III has world-class speed, a rocket arm, throws one of the prettier deep balls in the country -which he doesn’t get enough credit for- and unlike a lot of other QBs with the ability to scamper, he stays in the pocket and goes through his progressions better than most players at his age. He’s rising up NFL Draft Boards every week and that won’t stop when the interview process begins at the Combine.

Bottom Line: Robert Griffin III is a pioneer for the Baylor program and even though they won’t be in contention for a National Championship you can’t put any of the blame on him. Fumbles have killed his team at times but his resilience has led them to their revitalization.

2. Andrew Luck, Stanford JR. Quarterback

2011 Stats: 2,937 Yds 70.3 Com% 8.56YPA 31TDs 8INTs 167.4 QB Rating

Defining Moment: Playing against an underrated Southern California program who basically had all their chips in to ruining opposing members of the conference’s season due to bogus NCAA sanctions, Luck led his undermanned Stanford team to a thrilling 56-48 (3OT) victory that kept them in the hunt for a National Championship berth. As amazing as that display was, the moment that really stuck in my mind and any NFL Scout who saw it, was the following week at Oregon when a ball went through his Stanford WR’s hands that would have put them in scoring position in a two-TD game. As the WR went to the sidelines knowing full well that he had let his entire team down, Luck was there to greet him with a slap on the helmet while yelling words of encouragement. The Stanford team seems proud to go to war with this young man week in and week out, something you’d be hard-pressed to say about other high profile QBs.

NFL Outlook: Are you kidding me? Luck might be the first player in over a decade to have the #1 spot in the NFL Draft damn near cemented for over two years. Regardless of what idiots like Phil Simms and other nitpickers have to say, this kid has every tool in the box to be a star for years. Look at what Andy Dalton has done thus far in his rookie season and remember how far behind scouts thought he was behind Luck in everything from fundamentals to maturity to football IQ. He’s a lock if there ever one was, and the best thing about it is that he doesn’t carry himself like one and allows his teammates to feel at ease around him.

Bottom Line: If the Heisman Trophy was presented for the Best NFL Prospect we could have handed Luck the Trophy two years ago and nobody would have had any beefs. He’ll be right in the mix, deservingly so, and it would be a travesty if he finishes lower than second in the voting.

3. Trent Richardson, Alabama JR. Running Back

2011 Stats: 1,380 Rushing Yards 5.8 YPC 20TDS 26 Rec 322 Yds 12.4ave 2TDs

Defining Moment: Richardson doesn’t have the sexiest of running styles unless you’re a demolition man who enjoys seeing a pounding put on defensive front sevens, but the lone loss on the Crimson Tide’s schedule could arguably be his best argument for being the most deserving player in the college game for this award. He compiled over 160 yards of total offense against an LSU defense that was locked in and had gameplanned to stop him specifically. Not only did he compile those numbers but he did so gaining tough yards when necessary and proving he could be a force, regardless of how much of a “Defensive Battle” you think you’re anticipating.

NFL Outlook: Splitting carries with Mark Ingram during his first two seasons in Tuscaloosa will serve him well going into his rookie season. Regardless of the punishment he inflicts upon his opponents he ALWAYS gets the best of it and turns out no worse for the wear. Although the NFL is no longer primarily a one-RB league, Richardson is the one man that has come out of college football in the last decade that will give coaches something to think about. A guaranteed top-5 selection come April.

Bottom Line: Richardson still has the Iron Bowl to beat the hell out of rival Auburn in order to state his case, and while he would have obviously been much better had the Crimson Tide beat LSU in that showdown he still has as good a shot as anybody on this list to make a statement, not to mention the emotional setting to make it that much more important.

4. Matt Barkley, USC JR. Quarterback

2011 Stats: 3,105Yards 7.7YPA 33 TDs 7INTs 67.6 Com% 155.6 QB Rating

Defining Moment: Barkley marched into Autzen Stadium, to play an Oregon team that had every reason to believe they could have been in the driver’s seat with a win over the Trojans that night on prime time. Instead, Barkley rallied his troops and put together a series of drives in both halves that may have rivaled any game played by any quarterback in college football this season. He showed more savvy in that game than Mark Sanchez did in his one year under center for Southern Cal, in turn giving people throughout the country reason to believe the Trojans will be a National Title Contender if -and that’s a big “if”- he returns for his season season.

NFL Outlook: Barkley has climbed into the top-10 of every major Draft guru’s Big Board and would have every reason to leave after this season. But he did come to USC in order to win a title and we all know the stories of that being his life-long dream, it woulnd’t be too far-fetched for him to return, cut down on his mistakes and be the front-runner for the Heisman the way Luck was most of the year.

Bottom Line: The voters are going to wrongfully hold USC’s sanctions against Barkley and talk about the fact that the Trojans won’t even play in a Bowl Game this season. But since the Heisman Voting is done before the Bowl Season, there’s really no reason to base their votes on anything besides on-the-field performance, where Barkley stacks up with anybody in the nation.

Darkhorse

Tyrann Mathieu, LSU SO. Safety / Hell-Raiser / Kick Returner / Punt Returner / Honey Badger

Why He’ll Receive Votes: First of all he’s the most important player on the #1 team in the country. Mathieu has made more outstanding special teams players throughout the season than anyone this side of Devin Hester. The kid has a nose of the football and being in the right spot that you simply cannot explain it. His kickoff and punt returns are always demoralizing, not to mention the fumbles he forces -and mostly recovers- come at some of the most inopportune times for opposing teams. He burst onto the scene against Oregon in Week 1 and did nothing but earn his “Honey Badger” nickname from that point on. He’s going to make some NFL team a very happy coach. The one thing that killed him from being on the list above was a mid-season suspension for failing a drug test for synthetic marijuana. Those of you who haven’t been there, cast the first stone. If I see one stone cast, all hell’s gonna break loose!!!

Virginia Tech -4 @ Virginia

The Hokies have historically gotten better as the season’s gone on under Frank Beamer, especially against the spread. They’re 8-2 against the number over the last three season in weeks 10-13, finishing strong only to implode in their Bowl Game. This isn’t a Bowl gam ebut it will virtually guarantee them a bid if they can pull off a win, something I expect to happen. Logan Thomas will enter next season as a legit Heisman candidate and while he’s definitely deserving the offense runs through RB David Wilson, a freak athleticall. Virginia doesn’t have much to answer the Hokies offensive attack especially if VT scores a few early. This one could be over in a hurry, regardless of where it’s being played.

Virginia Tech rolls, 37-13, and clinches a spot in the ACC Championship Game sponsored by the flying cows and Chic-Fil-a.

South Carolina -4 vs. Clemson

Sorry Muck! The Gamecocks are loaded on both sides of the ball and while the Tigers have put together a tremendous year they’re also proving they’re the same old program that loses when it counts. This Clemson team has about three really good years ahead of itself -even with an outside National Title shot in its future- but 2011 is going to end on a note that they can use for motivation in the weight room over the summer. The game is going to come down to an SEC-sized-and-skilled line on both sides of the ball against one from the ACC. The difference is noticable and those concerns will have to be addressed through recruiting in the near future by Dabo Swinney. Connor Shaw has finally become comfortable in his role for SC which has brought better results in recent weeks. Those results will continue.

South Carolina wins a very entertaining game, 31-17, and also puts itself in position for a BCS berth.

Tampa Bay +3.5 @ Tennessee

These two teams are just about even in every category but Tampa Bay is simply playing better football at this point in the season. Both teams lost to playoff teams last weekend but the difference is that Tampa Bay learned something about itself in the process and the Titans go back to a quarterback that led them to a dismal seven points on offense against the Falcons. Josh Freeman and company are simply playing for pride but with a young QB and coaching staff many times that’s all the motivation you need. The Tampa defense is still formidable while the Titans offense is stuck in nuetral. This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring affair between two teams that struggled to form an identity in 2011.

Tampa wins on the field, 24-22, but we’ll take the points because they’re free.

Atlanta -9.5 vs. Minnesota

The Vikings are without their offense, Adrian Peterson, due to a high ankle sprain and we’re going to realize he is just about as valuable to them as Peyton Manning is to the Colts. Granted, the Vikings defense still has a pulse but it’s certainly getting much weaker as the season boils down. Th efalcons on the other hand are in the fight of their life for a playoff bid and they realize the importance of picking up a game on the Lions while they have a chance.

Atlanta rolls to a 31-10 victory and there’s no need to worry about a bullshit backdoor cover this week.

San Diego -6 vs. Denver

I couldn’t be more sick of the Tim Tebow lovers out there but that’s not why I’m picking against the Broncos by any means. I’m taking the Chargers because they have a QB that can throw the ball -a spiral- more than 20 yards down the field without believing it being a minor miracle from God above when it’s caught. San Diego hasn’t been at their best of late but the pressure of a playoff race usually turns things around for Philip Rivers and company. When Tebow plays against a team with the inability to score points he can undoubtedly lead his team to victory. The Chargers aren’t that team.

San Diego wins 23-10 and is right back in the hunt for a division title, regardless of whether or not they truly deserve to be.

Detroit +6.5 vs. Green Bay

Remember a few weeks back when we talked about betting on a streak to start. Well, that theory holds true for both teams coming into this game. The Packers failed to cover last weekend against the Bucs and played terribly down the stretch to do so. The Lions on the other hand rallied from a big deficit -albeit against a porous Carolina defense- for a big 49-35 win. I don’t think anybody holds a true formula to beating the Packers this season but they do definitely have the capability of beating themselves especially if you put Aaron Rodgers on his back a few times, something Mr. Suh and Co. truly enjoy doing. The physical presence of Suh coming up the middle as well as a secondary that is fairly oportunistic should be enough to keep the Packers from marching down the field early and often, something most of their foes have not been able to do thus far in 2011. Offensively things seemed to click for running back Kevin Smith and quarterback Matt Stafford last weekend after they were down, and as long as they can channel that energy from the kick off of this baby they should be in business.

The Packers escape with a 27-24 victory on a late touchdown by Jordy Nelson but you impress your friends and family by being the only guy in the room with money on the Lions. I’d wait until the last possible minute to put this game in because you’ll probably be able to get this at GB -7 once the fairweather Thanksgiving gamblers invade Vegas and hop on Green Bay. If not, think about buying it down to -7 with your book.

Dallas -7 vs. Miami

Throw the last few weekends out the window when you’re dissecting the Dolphins offensive capabilities. They’ve taken advantage of some of the NFL’s worst defensive units to run their season PPG average up to 19.3. They’re more likely somewhere in between the team that scored 16-points against the Chargers or 17-points against the Giants. Dallas on the other hand has turned it up a notch after realizing their back were squarely against the wall a few weeks back. Tony Romo usually performs well at home and the Cowboys’ 18-2 record in November with Romo at the helm is something to pay attention to. The Dolphins aren’t 3rd-to-last-team-to-win-a-game bad but they certainly aren’t capable of putting together a tremendous performance against a playoff-level team on the road in this kind of atmosphere.

The Cowboys roll to a 37-13 victory on an array of offensive and defensive touchdowns against the league newest Hot to Not QB, Matt Moore.

Baltimore -3.5 vs. San Fransisco

Never bet against a streak…….Unless that streaking team is traveling across the country on three days rest and one day of practice to play the most physical team the NFL has seen in the last two decades. I know the 49ers are 9-0-1 against the spread on the year, mainly because they weren’t given a ton of respect in Vegas until lately, but this game has letdown written all over it for the Niners. Hell, if the Cardinals had a quarterback with a pulse last weekend they might have been able to put that streak to a screeching halt. But they didn’t, so we’ll look like overstuffed geniuses laying on the coach counting our cash come midnight. San Fran has been able to attack the middle of the field on everybody they’ve played and have found a ton of success in doing so. The middle of the field is patrolled -most likely- by two Hall of Famers who don’t give a damn what their opponents credentials are, straight up or against the spread! The Ravens have been able to step up -and play down- to their competition all year long and I don’t expect anything different in the nightcap.

The Ravens win somewhat handily, 24-10, and the talk of a Har-Brawl is heated by halftime.

***Check back in on Friday for the Fab Five, but until then Eat, Drink and Be Merry my men! -Fireman Mike